Where Rent Growth Is Actually Coming From in 2024 — And What Operators Should Do About It
Headline rent growth numbers are masking a more complicated story on the ground. Understanding the divergence between new lease and renewal performance — and why it varies so dramatically by submarket — is the difference between leaving money on the table and capturing real revenue. Here's what the data is telling us and how to act on it.
Article
The Headline Number Is Lying to You National rent growth figures have been hovering near flat or slightly negative for most of 2024, and if you're reading those numbers and assuming your portfolio reflects them, you're probably making pricing decisions on bad assumptions. The real story is in the dispersion. Markets like Columbus, Kansas City, and Indianapolis are posting consistent 3–5% effective rent growth while Sun Belt metros — Austin, Phoenix, Raleigh — are absorbing historic supply waves and running negative on new lease tradeouts in many submarkets. Even within a single MSA, you can have one submarket at 4% and another at +6%, separated by ten miles. The operators getting hurt right now are the ones treating their portfolio like a monolith. New Leases vs. Renewals: A Widening Gap One of the most important trends playing out right now is the divergence between new lease performance and renewal performance — and most operators aren't managing both with equal rigor. In highsupply markets, new lease rents are under significant pressure.